World trade edges higher in July – supported by higher US dollar

Aug. 2, 2018

The gKNi World Trade Indicator registered 140.7 points at the end of July, 0.6% higher compared to the previous month and 10.2% higher than in July 2017. North America is running at full speed. On the other hand, Europe and emerging markets are benef

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World Trade Indicator at the end of July 2018, seasonally and working-day adjusted (SA), in USD: 140.7 points, Jan 2010 = 100 points. Export and import data from World Trade Organization (WTO) at the end of May 2018, in USD: 150.8 (+10.6% YoY); Jan 2010 = 100 points. The monthly merchandise values according to WTO are not seasonally or working-day adjusted (NSA), exports are valued FOB and imports CIF.

At a record high

The gKNi World Trade Indicator powered by LogIndex — the data company of Kuehne + Nagel Group — stood at 140.7 (10.2% YoY) at the end of July, +0.6% compared to June. The current reading is almost at the record high achieved in February. The annualized growth rate slowed only marginally to 12.2% in July from 12.5% in June (on year-to-date basis). The latest World Trade Organization (WTO) data available for April showed a change of 10.6% compared to the previous year.

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Month-over-Month changes of World Trade Indicator (WTI) past 13 months.

USA and Europa up

North America is in full swing: Foreign trade in Canada increased by 12.8% YoY in July (June: 4.7%). The United States accelerated exports and imports from 9.1% in June to 10.2% (YoY) in July. Europe, especially Sweden, Spain and the Netherlands, is also more dynamic, underpinned by a higher US dollar. However, Asia is developing less dynamically and will slow down further in August. In general, world will cool off slightly again in August.

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Foreign trade in July by region and group.

Sea freight slightly lower

After a strong second quarter, container traffic on the oceans declined only marginally in July (-0.3% MoM), driven by ports in China (-0.5%) and the United States (-0.3). Japanese ports increased the container throughput by 0.8%, Hong Kong 0.3% and Singapore 0.2% (MoM). The gKNi indicator for sea freight is up 2.6% since the beginning of the year, while capacity has increased by 4.1% (twenty-foot equivalent unit: TEU ).

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This chart shows the Month-over-3-Month changes based on the gKNi World Trade Indicator (Moving Average 3-Month).